Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 37.571449 44.570659 52.308377 61.468629 71.986903 83.655846 97.549225
2024-10-13 26.067159 34.905089 45.696848 59.722244 77.332704 98.566503 125.943297
2024-10-20 22.439639 32.856593 46.529231 65.513915 90.871903 123.218906 167.183718
2024-10-27 16.958305 27.014103 41.130695 61.951662 91.345860 130.747080 186.805971
2024-11-03 14.684415 25.087828 40.521122 64.420482 99.677010 148.805335 221.217886
2024-11-10 13.177994 23.968007 40.775986 67.933935 109.542361 169.466048 260.457383
2024-11-17 11.821565 22.806781 40.716905 70.811047 118.533732 189.336112 299.740648
2024-11-24 10.205640 20.902960 39.161310 71.056252 123.373650 203.267324 331.079857
2024-12-01 8.493731 18.509016 36.426037 68.981846 124.223104 211.034661 353.460209
2024-12-08 7.428285 17.123520 35.216356 69.261532 128.774954 224.663550 385.446571
2024-12-15 6.622248 16.099734 34.501030 70.268428 134.525916 240.440527 421.574156
2024-12-22 5.189544 13.500800 30.464065 64.796138 128.590175 236.706230 426.087694
2024-12-29 4.575151 12.676081 29.987132 66.333089 135.946678 256.884027 473.259017
2025-01-05 3.741912 11.174864 27.940875 64.676671 137.530260 267.717948 506.290487
2025-01-12 3.651067 11.465608 29.735801 70.902824 154.411190 306.375453 589.157502
2025-01-19 2.873298 9.778798 26.866127 67.089453 151.591170 309.717679 610.938751
2025-01-26 2.615170 9.437931 27.025062 69.734411 161.700250 337.186383 676.958230
2025-02-02 2.444575 9.307131 27.662422 73.496638 174.376700 370.215648 754.846510
2025-02-09 2.254824 9.068369 27.988633 76.576129 185.879630 401.727339 831.676448
2025-02-16 1.964162 8.423481 27.157089 76.838529 191.421505 422.114206 888.993079
2025-02-23 1.622984 7.496091 25.395347 74.618396 191.348357 431.462876 926.007866
2025-03-02 1.418477 6.987214 24.696032 74.917764 196.835972 452.158754 985.745424
2025-03-09 1.263779 6.615554 24.324008 75.995430 204.156709 476.980472 1054.739290